1988 New Hampshire Primary:
Polling Picks Up Dramatic Shifts

Volume VIII, Number 9 February 29, 1988

If George Bush is elected President, he will look back to New Hampshire as a place where he was very nearly finished before he'd begun. For several days, the Vice President was trapped in a downward spin and appeared powerless to get out of it. He had finished a poor third in Iowa, and had no successful message of his own. He was "forced out of the limo and into the crowds," according to WCVB-TV's Martha Bradlee.

His bitter opponent, Bob Dole, was asked about Bush's momentum. The Kansas senator replied, "When you're going down, it's not momentum --- it's gravity!"

The story of how Bush beat both gravity and Dole was a hard one to identify --- and to cover. The three Boston stations had extensive bureau operations in New Hampshire and supplemented their hard news coverage with analysts and polling.  

Analysts Counter Media Manipulation

A presidential campaign is a constant attempt by savvy media advisors to put their spin on the news coverage, to control the news of the day in a way which will help their candidates.

News executives countered the manipulation with experts well experienced in the trade themselves. Political professionals were de-briefed daily to keep the campaigns in perspective. These were national media consultants and pollsters who had no link to this year's campaigns, but who had been there before.

The Dole team tried to dominate the evening news the last Friday with an event no station could ignore. Candidate Al Haig quit the race and endorsed Dole, saying, "Bob Dole is head and shoulders above George Bush!" WNEV-TV ran candidate reacts, including Bush saying, "I have not sensed great enthusiasm on Al's part for my candidacy."

To round out their coverage, WNEV then went live to Washington to talk with Republican analyst Haley Barbour. Anchor R.D. Sahl wanted to know what impact the endorsement would have. Barbour replied, "I don't think it means much at all. If Al Haig had very much to give --- he wouldn't be getting out."

The Dole team had succeeded in setting the lead to the day's first block --- but, the WNEV analyst put it all right back in balance.

A good analyst can:

1. Counter the manipulation of your news agenda.

2. Give an opinion on why something happened and how important it is.

3. Provide an interesting personality whose opinions are worth tuning in for.

4. Help differentiate your news, something which is difficult to do in hard news reporting. In most markets, no matter how well-written the hard news piece is, the core video and bites tend to be the same on all three channels. It is, after all, the same event.

De-briefings

WBZ-TV's producers gave their talent enough time to be de-briefed effectively. The original Eyewitness News Q and A format worked well for them. The key: It was a conversation roughly similar to what we would hear naturally in person or on the phone. It was not a frantic "Wrap him! Wrap him!" pacing which allows for only a "Yup!" "Nope!" or "Wow!" from the de-briefed talent.

Typical:
Boston anchor Jack Williams: "I was at a Republican function in Boston last night covering a story. Fifteen hundred people were there. I was amazed by the visible lack of support for Bush. I don't know if that can be translated into New Hampshire. Have you noticed this --- almost as though he's being deflated before our eyes?"

Manchester anchor John Henning: "Jack, I think that's a pretty good description of what's going on. People are seeing the whole thing, like a sandcastle, erode away with each day. Each day is a wave taking more support away. That's how it's being perceived. I think polls will come out in the next twenty-four hours which will show Dole has caught up with Bush and surpassed him in some areas."

Using veteran talent, long established in the market, this approach worked for WBZ.

Critical for analysts and de-briefed reporters to look good: the quality of the questions which they are asked to respond to.

Dole's Brief, Shining Moment

Sunday evening, WCVB-TV anchor Jay Schadler reported from Manchester: "Ever since Vice President George Bush began campaigning up here well over a year ago, he has enjoyed the title of front-runner. Well, tonight he's trying on a new label, 'underdog."'

WCVB's Gallup poll gave Dole an eight-point lead.  This was substantial, and quite a sign of how far Bush had fallen. The Vice President had been roughly twenty points ahead before the Iowa caucuses. ABC's tracking found Dole ahead by seven.

In 1984, ABC had had great luck tracking right down to the night before the primary and picking up Hart's pending upset of front-runner Mondale.  

Polling provided a substantial story. The Dole surge/Bush drop was something the political professionals knew privately from their tracking. Broadcast polling allowed the public to know what the insiders did.

Do polls influence the outcome?

As always, there were questions about polls influencing voters.

WNEV's Kate Sullivan interviewed CBS' Dan Rather about campaign coverage, and she asked about the possible impact of polling results on voters' choices. Rather replied, "When you go to a Celtics game, of course, you're interested in whether the Celtics are running a fast break, but in the end, what you're interested in is the score. You want to know whether they're up by 3, or down by 4. So it is with politics."

Sullivan: "In a Celtics game, to use your analogy, the baskets made are absolute --- 105 to 103 is an absolute score ... .... but a poll can influence the voters."

Rather: "I have such confidence in the voters ... my own personal theory is that (the idea) they are fooled ... undersells them, underestimates them."

A one-on-one with your network anchor or prime correspondent can provide an interesting sidebar.
Note: Sullivan was firm with Rather, and it worked.

It All Shifts

WBZ returned to the field Monday evening, the night before the voting. The researchers found a surprise: the sandcastle had stopped eroding.

Bush had begun to come back, and the movement was substantial enough that it could be picked up. Late deciders broke to him in great numbers. Dole later blamed Bush commercials. ("Stop lying about my record.")

CBS found the same thing --- Bush ahead --- and even ran the poll results the morning of primary day itself.

Polling to the final night picked up the final movement to Bush. If the broadcasters had stopped surveying on the weekend, a post primary lead would've been: Polls Wrong, Bush Wins. This voter movement was possible because it was a race where many voters knew and felt little about the candidates. These people weren't locked in. They could be influenced. It wasn't like a long, intense fight for City Hall where virtually all voters know and feel a lot about the contenders.

Exit Polling Completes Picture

Gallup President Andy Kohut subsequently told WCVB's Chet Curtis that their exit polling showed a group of regular Republicans had switched back and forth between Dole and Bush. Kohut also explained, "Our polls have consistently shown for George Bush --- here and elsewhere --- that his support is always stronger than Dole's. The weak support Dole brought into the final days, in the end, went to Bush."

Gallup President Andy Kohut subsequently told WCVB's Chet Curtis that their exit polling showed a group of regular Republicans had switched back and forth between Dole and Bush. Kohut also explained, "Our polls have consistently shown for George Bush --- here and elsewhere --- that his support is always stronger than Dole's. The weak support Dole brought into the final days, in the end, went to Bush." Copyright 2004, Standish Publishing Company.

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